Effect of Currency Devaluation in Pakistan: A Prospect of Short Term and Long Term

Abstract

Currency devaluation is a standout amongst the most emotional even awful proportions of financial strategy that a legislature may attempt It generally creates cries of shocks and Sustainable economic growth and development is undoubtly, one of the most challenging development issue, nowadays, in the developing countries Therefore, this study investigates theoretically and empirically the impact of currency devaluation on economic growth of Pakistan The study finds evidence of non-linearity in this relationship and capture that through a smooth transition regression model. Using annual data for the period 1975-2018, employing ARDL bounds test. From an evaluation of the overall analysis and results, it is concluded that foreign exchange reserves have positive and significant short run effect for all the countries. Inflation has negative and significant effect on economic growth of all the countries while real exchange rate has also positive and significant effect on economic growth. The government spending on development has positive and significant effect in short run scenario for all the selected countries while the money growth have positive and negative but significant effect on different countries depending on the political situation and economy based on agrarian product or industrial products. The results of this study confirm the finding of most previous study, since the advent of the exogenous growth theory. The study suggests that all the variables e.g. inflation, foreign exchange reserves, real exchange rate, money growth and government spending could be effectual in these augmenting economies.